Archive for ND&S Updates
Another day, another dollar
July 23, 2013
07.23.13
Markets continued to edge higher last week, with the S&P registering a 0.7% advance.
Earnings reports were mostly positive. Early-week reports from Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Johnson and Johnson were all positive. General Electric produced only a modest beat, but expectations were modest, producing a 4%+ relief rally. The “Debbie Downers” this past week were Google and Microsoft. Both are challenged by market shifts to mobile. Finally Schlumberger’s positive report reflects continued strength in crude oil pricing [Brent has averaged above $100 since the beginning of 2011].
Bernanke’s congressional testimony indicated that fed actions are data dependent, and he even broached the possibility of increasing purchases if financial conditions were to tighten. The concurrent housing data [starts were 836,000 units vs. 958,000 estimated] suggested that fed asset purchases remain unchanged, which appeased fixed-income markets. So, the Fed’s “trial-balloon” has been withdrawn for the moment. Thus, the transition from ease to relative tightening will occur next year [or later?] under the supervision of a new Fed chief. Will the next chairman be in the mold of G. William Miller or Paul A. Volker? [We’re praying for the latter].
“Bon ton roulette”
– cajun musician Lawrence Walker
Off the Radar At Last
July 15, 2013
07.15.13
Many analysts have been spending their time agonizing over the slowdown in the Chinese economy. The second quarter GDP numbers are out and now perhaps the analysts will move on to something else.
China reported 7.5% growth for the quarter, which was right on the estimates. This is a slowdown from China’s previous 10-11% reported growth, but is a much more sustainable pace. It also helps with worldwide inflation caused by the excess demand from China. Big exporters to China can adapt to the changed level of activity.
Alcoa kicked off the quarterly earnings reporting season, but the major banks tell us more about U.S. economic conditions. So far these reports have made for pleasant reading. Wells Fargo kicked off the proceedings by reporting a $.98 quarter versus the $.93 consensus. Estimates will go up for 2013-15 as a result. Their balance sheet is the strongest of the big banks. Its capital strength stands out as its most impressive characteristic and provides the freedom to increase dividends and/or buy back shares.
J.P. Morgan came up next, reporting $1.60 for the quarter, ahead by 32% from a year ago. Improvement was boosted by refinancing levels, lower credit losses and very strong investment banking.
Finally, Citicorp reported today and kept pace with its brethren. $1.34 handily beat the forecasted number of $1.18. The bank showed continued improvement on bad loans and improved expense control, which has been a focus of new CEO Michael Corbat. Citi’s most unique aspect is that it sells right around tangible book value, best of the big banks. Personnel expenses were down 4.35%, total expenses decreased by 2.1%.
“Remember, my son, that any man who is a bear on the future of this country will go broke.”
– John Pierpont Morgan
Earnings Season Begins
July 8, 2013
07.08.13
Last week the major economic news was the monthly jobs report for June showing that 195,000 new jobs were created, which was above the consensus expectation for 170,000 new jobs. Also, revisions to prior monthly reports were positive and as a result, for the year to date, employers have averaged adding 200,000 jobs per month.
The stock market reacted positively on Friday and for the week the DJIA was up 1.52%. However, bond investors were less sanguine and interest rates continued their recent rise with the 10 year Treasury hitting 2.71%. The stronger jobs data reinforces expectations that the Fed will start to slow its monthly bond-buying program in September and as a result interest rates continued their recent rise. Higher mortgage rates would have a negative effect on the housing recovery.
This week starts the earnings reporting period for the second quarter beginning with Alcoa on Monday, but the big banks starting with J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo don’t report until Friday. Financials as a group are expected to have the best earnings with a 17% increase. Overall, analysts’ expectations for second quarter earnings for the S&P 500 companies is only for a 0.7% increase down from the 3.5% increase in the first quarter. More concerning is the fact that revenue growth has been slowing for most companies and second quarter revenue is only projected to grow by 1%. Most companies will probably be able to beat lowered earnings expectations but it becomes harder and harder with lower revenues, further evidence of a below normal economic recovery.
Today’s History
1889 Wall Street Journal begins publishing
“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of the facts and evidence.”
– John Adams
Taper Tantrum Rebound
July 1, 2013
07.01.13
Markets recovered last week from the Fed’s Taper Tantrum the previous week.
For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 14,909.6 to close up by 0.7%. The S&P 500 closed at 1,606.3 for a gain 0.9% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite closed the week at 3,403.3 for a jump of 1.4%. Fortunately, most international markets fared similarly as the Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index gained 1.4% for the week (the index is still down 1.1% for the year-to-date period through June). Bonds rose slightly for the week following the previous week’s sharp sell-off. The 10-year Treasury closed the week at a yield of 2.49% … down from last week’s 2.54% yield (and 2.64% intraweek high).
Members of the Federal Open Market Committee attempted to play-down the market’s overreaction to previous comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that the Fed would begin to taper their bond purchases (thus slowly removing stimulus to the economy). The markets, as usual, pulled forward expectations for Fed easing, and overreacted to the Fed’s eventual easing. Perhaps the bond market’s sell-off will put-off Fed easing for a few months. We see treasury yields stabilizing for a few months before grinding slowly higher into year-end.
Most economic news released last week was fairly positive – consumer confidence hit record highs, initial jobless claims were favorable, new homes sales finished at five year highs, and durable goods orders beat expectations. A few disappointing economic data points included first quarter GDP being revised lower from 2.4% to 1.8% and a tepid purchasing managers’ index. The big economic release for this week is June’s job report due out on Friday (consensus is 170k).
As always, we urge investors not to get caught up in the day-to-day noise of the markets. Instead, focus on long-term goals and enjoy the summer.
Best wishes to everyone for a great Fourth of July holiday!
“The most dangerous of all falsehoods is a slightly distorted truth.”
– George Christoph Lichtenberg
Earnings Deluge
July 29, 2013
07.29.13
Last week the S&P 500 essentially went sideways after gaining nearly 9.0% over the preceding four weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a 0.1% gain for the week while the Nasdaq added 0.7%.
We saw a deluge of company earnings reports with 157 S&P 500 companies and eight Dow components reported their quarterly results. U.S. earnings have beaten estimates by 65%, however, revenue growth is still challenged. According to Thomson Reuters, revenue growth for S&P 500 companies is expected to creep up by just 1.1% in the second quarter from a year earlier. Even still, profit margins are close to record highs at 9.7%. Analysts are projecting a slight climb in profit margins in the second half of this year (see chart below). “Restructuring is just a way of life in corporate America,” says Gregory Hayes the Chief Financial Officer of United Technologies.
The week ahead is filled with several market-moving items, such as advanced estimates for Q2 GDP, the FOMC meeting, and the July employment report. To add to the action, over 100 S&P 500 companies will be reporting their results.
“The greatness of America lies not in being more enlightened than any other nation, but rather in her ability to repair her faults.”
– Alexis de Tocqueville