Archive for ND&S Updates
GOLDILOCKS AND THE FED
June 22, 2015
A common theme since the 2009 stock market bottom has been our “Goldilocks economy” – it’s not too hot and not too cold. This specifically refers to investors’ sense of the U.S. economy and interest rate levels. Translation: GDP growth is mediocre, thus the Fed is reluctant to raise interest rates. We still have not seen the long-promised first rate increase. Moreover, even when it does occur, subsequent rate increases will be gradual. U.S. and foreign stock markets like this scenario.
Currently, the S&P 500 index is up about 3% YTD, which is a reflection of the uncertainty about where the economy and interest rates are heading. Economic growth is emerging from its winter slumber and corporate earnings should pick up for the balance of the year. Job growth is improving gradually, and the number of initial unemployment claims has fallen quite nicely. Meanwhile current inflation numbers are still relatively benign – result: the “Goldilocks economy”.
The strongest markets this year have been international, with the MSCI EAFE up 8.13%. In the US, the NASDAQ is up 8.63%, sparked by health care and select tech names. With uncertainty still extant, the markets seem comfortable with the current overall picture.
“The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary.” – Vince Lombardi
Greece is STILL the Word
June 15, 2015
The market ended the week slightly higher as stronger economic numbers offset some disappointing news out of Greece. On Tuesday, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported its latest small business optimism index rose to 98.3 in May, while also commenting 80% of small businesses trying to hire workers reported few or no applicants (tighter job market = rising wages = consumer spending). On Thursday, the Department of Commerce reported retail sales for May increased 1.2% m/m (beating estimates of 1.1% gain), while the World Bank reduced its outlook for global economic growth this year by 0.2 percentage points, down to 2.8%. This deceleration was due to a slowdown in emerging markets and lower than expected output from the U.S. due to a strong dollar. On Friday, negative headline news about the failure of Greece and its European creditors to put together a debt pact weighed heavily on the markets.
For the week, the broader-based S&P 500 closed at 2094 to finish up 0.12%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 17899 which was up 0.32% for the week. International markets finished the week mixed as the MSCI EAFE was up 1.39% while the MSCI EM was down -0.22%. Oil prices ended the week up, the dollar weakened slightly against the euro, and treasury yields were flat with the U.S. 10 Year Treasury closing as a yield of 2.39%.
Volatility is here to stay with Greece troubles and pending rate hikes here in the U.S. sure to provide extra talking points for everyone’s favorite news outlet this week. As always, we encourage everyone to ignore the noise and enjoy life’s gifts each and everyday.
“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” – Albert Einstein
The Calm before the Storm
June 9, 2015
Equity markets mostly declined for a second consecutive week on lackluster volume. The Dow and the S&P fell ~0.8%, while the Russell 2000 managed a 1.2% advance.
The ongoing negotiations between Greece and its creditors provided much of the week’s headline risk: Monday started with debt settlement rumors [which were quickly scuttled], and the week ended with the Eurozone claiming that a Greek exit from the union would produce minimal disruption [a negotiating ploy?]. This ongoing dance can still move markets, but its power is slowly waning.
The International Monetary Fund made more significant headlines Wednesday morning, when IMF Director Christine Lagarde urged the Fed to delay its first rate hike to the first half of 2016. The IMF simultaneously lowered its 2015 GDP forecast to 2.5% [down from 3.1%], which is consensus. The trouble is that the Fed may be already “behind the curve”, suggesting that the eventual free-market price-discovery may be quite abrupt [Roubini calls it a “time bomb”]. Let’s hope that Ms. Lagarde is not successful.
“In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act” – George Orwell
This Summer’s Dance: The Shake & Shiller
June 1, 2015
With U.S. equity markets up slightly year-to-date and the equity bull market now rolling into its 6th year, economists, analysts, billionaire hedge fund managers, and investor know-it-alls will be continually asked the same question: Are stocks overvalued? … or better yet: When is the next correction? Yes, stocks are slightly overvalued, and corrections are inherently difficult to predict with any consistency. Goldman Sachs recently published a report proposing those same questions to economists Robert Shiller and Jeremy Siegel. Robert Shiller, well known for the Shiller PE Ratio which bares his name, considers the market overvalued (current Shiller P/E at 27X). We will have more on valuations in our 2nd Quarter newsletter…
Equities were fairly volatile last week as Federal Reserve action and U.S. growth concerns surfaced (another tough winter …?). On the economic front, the U.S. Census Bureau reported on Tuesday that non-durable goods orders in April decreased 0.5% (vs. expected 0.3% decline) while Core Capex (Nondefense Capital Goods excluding aircrafts) improved by 1.0%, which was above consensus of 0.3%. On Friday, the Commerce Department released its second (revised) estimate of 1st Qtr. GDP, which showed the economy contracted 0.7% (vs. 1.0% expected decline). Economist expectations are for growth to pick up in 2nd quarter as an improving job market, preliminary signs of wage acceleration, and still-low gasoline prices at the pump push consumer spending higher.
For the week, the broader-based S&P 500 closed at 2107 to finish down -0.86%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 18011 which was done -1.18% for the week. International markets finished even worse as the MSCI EAFE closed lower by -1.82% and while the MSCI EM was down -3.18% for the week. Oil prices ended the week relatively flat, the dollar strengthened slightly against the Euro, and Treasury yields were lower with the U.S. 10 Year Treasury closing as a yield of 2.12%.
Given that we are within percentage points from another market all-time high, one might be tempted to time a potential correction, but we would advise against such strategies. In fact, we would recommend the same thing we always do: That is buy and hold, buy and hold, and buy and hold some more … astute readers know where we are going with this. Now is a time that active management, diversification, and security selection will start to earn its keep. We suggest that one should ride out any volatility and maintain a pro-growth investment approach in-line with one’s risk tolerance and objectives. And don’t forget – buy and hold some more.
“Obstacles are those frightful things you see when you take your eyes off your goal.” – Henry Ford
The Greek Story Continues
June 29, 2015
US equity markets declined last week while international equity markets were slightly positive. The National Association of Realtors reported on Monday that existing home sales increased 5.1% in May (from April). The seasonally adjusted annual rate is now at 5.35 million, the strongest pace since 2009. First-time home buyers are finally participating in the housing recovery as they represented 32% of all sales. On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Commerce released its third reading of 1st Quarter GDP, which showed that the economy contracted only (0.2%), much better than the previous reading of (0.7%) last month. Despite the 1st Quarter contraction, GDP is broadly expected to pick up in the second quarter. On Thursday, The Commerce Department reported personal income in May increased 0.5%, what was positive out of the report was personal spending which increased 0.9%, the highest reading since August 2009.
For the week, the broader-based S&P 500 closed at 2101 to finish down (0.37%). The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 17947 which was down (0.34%) for the week. International markets finished slightly ahead as the MSCI EAFE was up 0.91% for the week, while the MSCI EM was up 0.85%. Yields continued to move upward in advance of fed rate hikes as the 10YR US Treasury closed at a yield of 2.49%.
Investors should continue to expect volatility as the Greek debt issue continues to make headline news. Without an agreement that would trigger more bailout funds, Greece is almost certain to default on its 1.55 billion in loans it owes on Tuesday to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Despite the noise, we see the global economic expansion continuing.
“Weakness of attitude becomes weakness of character.” – Albert Einstein