Archive for ND&S Updates
Weekly Commentary 8/22/2022 – A Cooling of the Summer Rally
August 22, 2022
Wall Street ended its 4th straight week of market advances as investors were nervous by possible signs of peaking consumer demand and a less than accommodative Federal Reserve.
The S&P 500 lost 1.2% this past week, the Nasdaq slid 2.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched lower by .05%. International Equities also finished in the red with developed markets (EAFE) and emerging markets (EM) down 2.2% and 1.5%, respectively. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose to 2.98%, up from 2.85% from the previous week.
The 2nd Q earnings season is almost over and nearly 63% of the S&P companies beating revenue estimates and roughly 76% exceeding estimated earnings. Revenue growth year over year is coming in at 14.1% and earnings are higher by 8.2%.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released minutes from their latest meeting showed that members felt that interest rates would need to continue being raised to bring inflation in line with targets. Investors are hoping for less aggressive rate hikes in the fall.
The price of Oil fell $0.80 with U.S. Crude ended the week at $90.77 per barrel. That is still way down from the high of $123 at the beginning of the war in Ukraine. Housing showed signs of weakening as housing starts fell 9.6% to the lowest level since August 2000, due to increased construction costs and higher mortgage rates. The July job reports came in much stronger than expected and retail sales were basically flat. However, other weak economic indicators were reported, and the inverted yield curve is rearing its recessionary head.
We would not be surprised by a market pull-back given our summer rally. With the uncertainty of inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical tensions, market volatility will continue. We recommend staying well-diversified and fine-tuning accordingly.
All eyes will be on the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole meeting, and Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, speaking on Friday. There will be a slew of economic reports on housing, durable goods orders, August manufacturing and service PMIs and consumer sentiment.
“Roll out those lazy, hazy, crazy days of summer.”- Sam Cooke
Weekly Commentary (8/15/22) – Everybody is a Winner
August 15, 2022
Inflation numbers were slightly more positive than the estimates and investors seized on these indicators and the good job growth and pushed prices higher. A rally that began in mid-June extended as all major equity and bond indices were positive for the week.
For the week, the DJIA gained 2.99% and the S&P 500 advanced 3.31%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq added 3.1%. International markets also had a positive week. The MSCI EAFE Index (developed countries) increased 2.17% while emerging market equities (MSCI EM) also 1.66%. Small company stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, had another strong week and ended up 4.97%. Fixed income, represented by the Bloomberg Aggregate, managed 0.24% gain for the week as, on the average, yields held their levels and corporate spreads tightened. As a result, the 10 YR US Treasury closed at a yield of 2.84% (up ~ 1 bps from the previous week’s closing yield of ~2.83%). Gold prices closed at $1,792/oz – up ~1%. Oil prices moved slightly higher and closed at $92.09 per barrel, up ~3.5% on the week.
Inflation was reported at 8.5% for the previous 12 months through July. The consensus forecast was an 8.7% CPI increase and investors took this to be a good sign that perhaps the Fed would be less aggressive in their planned rate hikes. Nevertheless, that still presents quite a gap to the 2% target rate and Fed interest rate tightening through year end is still the strong consensus. Consumer sentiment (University of Michigan sentiment index) reversed course and rose to 55.1 from 51.5. this was also a surprise and was likely due to lower oil and gas prices and strong job growth.
This week includes several economic reports related to housing, manufacturing levels, and retail sales. The index of leading economic indicators and the minutes from the last Fed meeting are also released this week. In addition, several Fed committee members have speaking engagements and along with the minutes will likely provide more texture to the Fed’s committee’s sentiment and outlook.
Investors will parse this week’s data and the weeks’ to follow and we shall soon see whether this rally is the beginning of another bull phase in the equity markets or just an extended bear market rally. With the move made since June, we are already pushing earnings multiples to bullish levels in the face of slowing growth. On a technical basis, this rally is at an inflection point. If it continues higher and then reverses, it will break from the norm. If it were to reverse from current levels and retest the lows, it would be quite normal, though it would go down as more substantial than the normal bear market rally.
The heat wave is over, and the school busses are coming – soak up all the summer you can!
“The real glory is being knocked to your knees and then coming back. That’s real glory. That’s the essence of it.” – Vince Lombardi
Weekly Commentary (8/8/22) – Markets Mostly Higher as Earnings & Jobs Beat Expectations
August 8, 2022
Markets were mostly higher last week as earnings were generally better than expected and labor markets showed strong gains in July.
For the week, the DJIA lost 0.11% while the S&P 500 moved ahead by 0.39%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq had a good week and advanced 2.18%. International markets finished mixed. For the week, the MSCI EAFE Index (developed countries) finished lower by 0.65% while emerging market equities (MSCI EM) tacked-on a gain of 0.97%. Small company stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, were strong and finished the week nicely higher by 1.96%. Fixed income, represented by the Bloomberg Aggregate, declined 1.04% for the week as yields moved higher. As a result, the 10 YR US Treasury closed at a yield of 2.83% (up ~ 16 bps from the previous week’s closing yield of ~2.67%). Gold prices closed at $1,772.90/oz – up 0.57% as the U.S. dollar rose 0.63% on the week. Oil prices retreated to close at $89.01 per barrel, down 9.74% on the week.
Last week saw a number of important economic releases. The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 52.8% in July vs. 53.0% in May, yet the results point to a still-growing manufacturing economy. Closing out the week was July’s payrolls report. Non-farm payrolls rose 528k, more than double expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level since 1969. Average hourly earnings growth picked up 5.2% year-on-year compared to expectations of a 4.9% gain. The strong employment report will put pressure on the Fed to continue raising rates to slow down the economy and inflation. The next Fed meeting is September when they are expected to raise rates 50 bp followed by two 25 bp hikes before year-end for a terminal fed funds rate of 3.50%. July’s strong jobs number has some analysts pointing to a possible 75 bp rate hike in September.
The week ahead holds a few events that will provide investors a snapshot of how the economy and sentiment are holding up in August. Releases include: NFIB Small Business Index on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday, and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey on Friday. 2Q22 earnings season will be winding down this week and next.
We are likely not out of the woods yet, but the economic backdrop seems to be better than feared. We urge investment to stick close to long-term asset allocation targets with a slight defensive bias.
Enjoy the summer!
“Winners never quit and quitters never win.” – Vince Lombardi
ND&S Weekly Commentary 8.1.22 – Markets Close Out Strong July
August 1, 2022
Amid a barrage of corporate earnings reports, the outcome of the Fed’s July monetary policy meeting and a key economic data report, equity markets closed out July on a strong note marking their first positive month since March.
For the week, the DJIA gained 2.97% while the S&P 500 closed up 4.28%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped higher by 4.72% during a week where several bell-weather technology companies reported. Small company stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, returned 4.35%. International markets also had a positive week with developed markets (MSCI EAFE) and emerging markets (MSCI EM) up 2.11% and 0.42%, respectively. Fixed income, represented by the Bloomberg/Barclays Aggregate, was positive on the week recovering 0.64% during a volatile trading week for bonds. Treasury yields declined across the board as the 2s/10s yield curve saw its most inverted level in 20 years after the Fed’s press release. As a result, the 10 YR US Treasury closed at a yield of 2.67% (down 10 bps from the previous week’s closing yield of ~2.77%). Gold prices closed at $1,753/oz. – up by 2.04% on the week. Oil (WTI) closed at $98.62 per barrel, an increase of 4.1%.
Earnings were mostly the story last week as companies continue to report results that can be described as better than feared. About 279 S&P 500 companies have reported so far, of which 77.8% have topped analyst estimates for profit, according to Refinitive. Last week saw strong results and positive guidance from Amazon, Apple, Merck, Chevron, Exxon, and Microsoft.
In other economic news, it was widely expected and choreographed that the Federal Reserve would increase the Federal Funds rate by 75bps to a range of 2.25%-2.50%. In his post-meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell explicitly stated that he “does not think the U.S. is currently in a recession”. The Fed has prioritized the fight against inflation and we expect the continuation of rate hikes, albeit at a slower pace through the end of the year.
Real GDP fell 0.9% in 2Q, marking the U.S. economy’s second straight quarter of decline. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth has generally been the rule of thumb in defining a “recession”. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the de-facto scorekeepers of recessions, believes we are not there yet. Their definition is much broader, which encompasses other economic factors such as employment (2Q22 added on average 375k jobs), industrial production (still expanding), household income and trade. Gains in consumer spending and trade marginally offset slowdowns in inventory rebuilding, construction, and capital spending from companies.
Markets have rocketed higher over the past several weeks as the S&P 500 returned 9.1% in July. Things could take a breather here as we move past earnings season and into a seasonally weak period for equity markets. The focus for equity markets will begin shifting towards economic releases and inflation data as earning season begins to move into the rear-view.
“The most important measure of how good a game I played was how much better I’d made my teammates play.” – Bill Russell
ND&S Weekly Commentary 8.29.22 – Don’t Fight the Fed
August 29, 2022
The summer market rally cooled off last week as hawkish comments from the Fed portrayed a restrictive monetary policy.
For the week, the DJIA fell 4.20% and the S&P 500 dropped 4.02%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 4.43%. International markets were mixed. For the week, the MSCI EAFE Index (developed international) finished lower by 1.91% and emerging market equities (MSCI EM) increased 0.55%. Small company stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, were down 2.93% for the week. The 10 YR US Treasury closed at a yield of 3.04% (up 6 bps over the week) and as a result, fixed income, represented by the Bloomberg/Barclays Aggregate, fell 0.36% as yields moved higher. Gold prices finished at $1,751/oz – down 0.66% on the week. Oil prices closed at $93.06 per barrel.
The Federal Reserve gathered last week for their Jackson Hole economic symposium. The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke for roughly nine minutes and warned against any premature loosening of policy. “Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below trend-growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions. While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses,” said Powell. This hardline stance rattled equity markets on Friday sending all major U.S. indices down over 3% on the day.
Last week also brought a preliminary look at several manufacturing and services PMI data sets, all of which point towards a slowing economy and some progress on slowing inflation and improving supply chains. The headline Flash US PMI registered a reading of 45.0, down from a reading of 47.7 in July. The PMI reading for the service economy fell to 44.1, a sharp miss compared to expectations. The manufacturing reading fared a little better coming in at 51.3. Within the report, input prices eased for the third consecutive month, however companies are having higher cost burdens associated with the increase in interest rates. The July Durable Goods report showed a 0.4% increase in business spending in July. On Friday, the PCE Price Index (The Fed’s preferred inflation measure) came in at 6.3%, down from 6.8% in June. Core PCE came in at 4.8%, still well above the 2% target.
We think the Fed is ultimately doing the right thing to tackle inflation even if it means some short-term pain for the markets and economy. The markets have pulled back a bit over the last couple of weeks to levels we were at in late July. We are continuing to adjust portfolios to harvest some tax losses and will continue to take advantage of attractive short-term rates for cash and fixed income.
“The best way out is always through.” – Robert Frost