Weekly Commentary (06/29/2026) - Markets Weigh Geopolitics, Rates, and the Second Half

Weekly Commentary (06/29/2026) - Markets Weigh Geopolitics, Rates, and the Second Half

The first half of the year winds down with investors balancing familiar crosscurrents: solid corporate fundamentals, still-elevated inflation, attractive bond yields, and geopolitics that remain unusually important to the inflation and interest-rate outlook.

Last week’s economic data were mixed, but not weak. First-quarter GDP was revised higher to a 2.1% annualized pace, while personal income and personal spending both rose 0.7% in May. Inflation remained sticky, with core PCE up 0.3% for the month and 3.4% from a year earlier. Durable goods orders fell sharply, but much of that weakness reflected the volatile transportation category; orders excluding transportation were stronger. New home sales disappointed, reinforcing the view that higher borrowing costs continue to pressure rate-sensitive parts of the economy.

The more constructive part of the outlook remains earnings. Consensus expectations still point to strong S&P 500 profit growth in 2026 and 2027, giving investors a fundamental reason to look through bouts of volatility. History also offers some encouragement: when the S&P 500 has posted a positive first half, the second half has historically been positive more often than not.

Fixed income continues to look more favorable than it has for much of the past decade. With intermediate yields still in the mid to high-4% range and the Fed appearing closer to the end than the beginning of this tightening phase, bonds offer a more meaningful income cushion. The path is still data dependent, and the market is now focused on whether the Fed hikes once more, stays on hold, or signals a longer period of restraint. That makes this week’s labor data particularly important. Recent commentary around the June Fed meeting suggested policymakers were leaving room for tighter policy if inflation does not continue to improve.

Geopolitics remains the dominant swing factor. The tentative ceasefire in the Middle East helped oil retreat from its highs, easing some immediate inflation pressure. If the ceasefire holds and energy flows continue to normalize, inflation should decelerate as the year progresses. If tensions re-escalate, oil could quickly reprice the risk premium back into both inflation expectations and bond yields.

The week ahead brings several important reports, including consumer confidence, job openings, manufacturing data, construction spending, auto sales, and the June employment report before the Independence Day holiday. After a volatile week for growth stocks and commodities, investors will be looking for confirmation that the economy remains firm enough to support earnings, but not so strong that the Fed must tighten more aggressively.

We continue to advise investors to be disciplined in adhering to their investment policy and patient when the markets’ winds are pushing against the planned course.

“Do not judge me by my success, judge me by how many times I fell down and got back up again.” – Nelson Mandela

Sources Market data: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Weekly Market Recap, June 29, 2026. Index returns, yields, key rates, and commodity prices as cited in the Weekly Data Center. All equity returns represent total return for stated period. Oil and Gold: Wall Street Journal Markets Digest, June 29, 2026. Economic data: MarketWatch.com. Charts and portfolio data: YCharts.com. 
NDS Wealth Advisors believes these sources are reliable but cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of third-party data and assumes no liability for errors or omissions.
Disclosures This material is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be relied upon as investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Any economic forecasts or market outlooks expressed herein are forward-looking statements, subject to change without notice, and may not materialize. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not reflect the deduction of fees, commissions, or expenses, which would reduce overall performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. This material does not consider the investment objectives, financial situation, or unique needs of any individual investor. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.