Weekly Commentary (7.28.25) – Markets Push Higher as Big Tech Takes the Spotlight

For the week, equities extended their rally: the DJIA rose 1.28%, the S&P 500 gained 1.47%,
and the Nasdaq added 1.02%. Small-cap Russell 2000 climbed 0.95%, while international stocks
saw solid gains—MSCI EAFE up 1.92% and MSCI EM up 0.70%, respectively. Bonds also
edged higher, with the Bloomberg Aggregate up 0.37%. The 10year Treasury yield fell roughly
4 basis points to 4.40%. Gold slipped 0.57% to $3,340.00/oz, and oil dipped 0.89% to
$65.61/barrel.
Economic data released last week received mixed reviews. Durable goods declined 9.9% after
the pre-tariffs surge, New Home Sales rose slightly in June, and Markit PMIs (54.6) continue to
show the U.S. economy in expansion. Optimism over new trade agreements—from recent deals
easing U.S.-EU and U.S.-Japan tensions—helped fuel broad market gains last week.
Investors now turn their attention to several mega-cap tech names—Apple, Amazon, Meta, and
Microsoft—scheduled to report this week. Focus centers on their AI strategies: how much are
they spending, what monetization gains are visible, and whether they’ll raise capital expenditure
guidance in line with peers like Alphabet. Apple is under pressure to step up AI innovation,
Microsoft’s Azure-driven growth is expected to remain strong, Meta continues to bulk up on
supercharging its AI network, and Amazon’s cloud outlook will be closely watched in light of
tariff-related spending dynamics.
In addition to earnings, Q2 GDP (first estimate) will be released, alongside the Fed’s policy
decision and press conference on Wednesday. Few, if anyone, expect the Fed to deliver a rate cut
and based on recent economic data, we’re unlikely to get any dovish comments from Chairman
Powell. Key economic data in the week ahead will include the PCE inflation read, consumer
confidence, job openings, retail and wholesale inventories, and labor market metrics.
“In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.” – Robert Arnott