Weekly Commentary (5/15/23) – Most Markets Down Last Week
May 15, 2023
Equity markets were mostly lower last week as investors processed elevated but lessening inflation levels, political squabbling about the debt ceiling, expectations of recession / slowing growth, and lingering concerns about banks’ safety and stability.
For the week, the DJIA retreated 1.04% and the S&P 500 was down 0.24%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq added 0.44%. The MSCI EAFE Index gave up 0.63% while emerging market equities (MSCI EM) dropped 0.85%. Small company stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, were also down 1.04%. Fixed income, represented by the Bloomberg/Barclays Aggregate, finished lower by 0.23% for the week as yields moved a tiny bit higher. As a result, the 10 YR US Treasury closed at a yield of 3.46% (up 2bps from the previous week’s closing yield of ~3.44%) as investors seemed unmoved by CPI, PPI and unemployment data that met forecasts and expectations. Gold prices closed at $2,020/oz. – up 0.13%. Oil prices reversed course and moved higher by 3.37% to $70.87.
Last week’s major economic news was the Consumer Price Index data for April which came in on target for the month. Both the CPI and the Core CPI were up 0.4%. The year-over-year CPI came in at 4.9% versus the 5.0% forecast. Core CPI y/y was on target at 5.5%. Ultimately, investors did not react to this news with much energy as markets were generally tame last week. The VIX, which is a real-time measure of equity volatility, fell back to 16.5. In general, when the VIX is below 20 it is a signal of stable and lower stress conditions and levels at 30 or above is a sign of high volatility, uncertainty, and fear. The VIX has not closed above 30 since October and its peak close in 2023 was 26.52 in mid-March when SVB was rescued.
Nearly all S&P 500 Q1 earnings are reported, though a few notables report this week including Walmart, Home Depot, Target, and TJX. These are some of the retail bellwethers and their outlooks on the rest of the calendar year/consumer spending may be interesting. There have really been no big surprises this earnings cycle, though most companies continue to guide future earnings forecast lower or flat.
Markets continue to find more reasons to be sanguine than not. It’s as if the financial markets are tired of the recession hypothesis and are just looking past it, like real investors instead of the impetuous trader they most often are. Perhaps this is what a soft landing looks like – since nobody has ever really described it, or given an example of one from history, how should we know if we are landing softly? To say this environment is often confusing and incongruous is a major understatement. The pundits are at opposite poles – from a major repricing of equities being imminent, to jump on the bull and ride because the bottom of this cycle was made in October.
Since we are still wary of some near-term pressure on equity price levels, we remind clients to be mindful of their coming cash distributions needs. Avoid mixing funds that are earmarked for withdrawal over the next 24 months into the more volatile asset classes. Please keep us informed of your plans to access cash so we can adjust allocations appropriately.
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria” – Sir John Templeton
Stocks Rally to End Volatile Week – 5.8.23
May 8, 2023
Equities jumped higher on Friday, partially offsetting four days of declines earlier in the week. On the week, the S&P 500 weakened 0.78% and the DJIA declined 1.23%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq eked out 0.09%, helped by Apple’s results posted on Thursday. International equities had modest gains of 0.20% for developed markets and 0.52% for emerging markets. Fixed income was extremely volatile as the Fed delivered what was expected to be their last rate hike of this cycle, increasing the federal funds rate by another 0.25% to a range of 5.00-5.25%. The benchmark Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate finished the week down 0.05%. The yield curve became less inverted with the 2yr U.S. Treasury dropping to 3.92% and the 10yr U.S. Treasury finishing flat to close at 3.44%. Gold was a positive contributor last week, finishing up 1.37%. Oil (WTI) continued to move lower closing at $68.56/barrel.
It is certainly up for debate, within the analyst community, whether a recession is on the horizon. Economic data in recent months has pointed to a slowing economy in the face of higher interest rates. Yet, despite expectations of a slowdown, last week’s monthly payroll reports painted a completely different picture. April saw an increase of 253,000 jobs (much higher than estimates), with unemployment of 3.4% matching a low from 1969. The low jobless number has kept upward pressure on wages, which are up 4.4% from a year earlier.
Equity markets have been clinging to gains so far in 2023. Entering the quarter, it was expected that earnings would decline 6.3%, but results so far show a contraction of 3.7%, much better than feared. In fact, S&P 500 is posting their best performance relative to analysts’ expectations since Q4 2021. We are continuing to have a bias towards quality for stock and bond selection to help us navigate this period of increased uncertainty.
“Our satisfactory results have been the products of about a dozen truly good decisions. That would be about one every five years.” – Warren Buffett
ND & S Weekly Commentary 5.1.23
May 1, 2023
Markets Results Mostly Higher on the Week
Equity markets were generally higher last week with investors favoring larger companies, tech and developed economies.
For the week, the DJIA added 0.86% and the S&P 500 moved 0.89% higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq had was even higher adding by 1.28%. The MSCI EAFE Index also continued moving higher adding 0.17% while emerging market equities (MSCI EM) dropped 0.27%. Small company stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, retreated 1.24%. Fixed income, represented by the Bloomberg/Barclays Aggregate, finished higher by 0.83% for the week as yields moved slightly lower. As a result, the 10 YR US Treasury closed at a yield of 3.44% (down 13bps from the previous week’s closing yield of ~3.57%) as investors reacted to lower-than-expected GDP results and perhaps some bias towards the Fed being less hawkish. Gold prices closed at $1,983/oz – up 0.18%. Oil prices continued to move lower by 3.99% to $74.76.
The major macro-economic news last week was GDP being revised down from 2.6% to a 1.1% growth rate in Q1 and inflation numbers showing more stubbornness. US Core PCE increased 4.6% year-over-year and the Department of Labor’s employment cost index increased 1.2% quarter-over-quarter. Both were higher than the expectations of 4.5% and 1.0%, respectively. The PCE numbers are of greater importance to the Fed’s thinking than are the CPI and other inflation measures or indicators.
Despite the evidence that the economy is slowing, and inflation is declining at decreasing rates, investors seem more focused on recent earnings results. While earnings are not spectacular, they are not horrible either and that seems to be good enough for the optimists who seem tired of the dark ideas of interest rates being higher for longer and an inevitable recession.
Earnings results, outlooks and forecasts will continue over the next few weeks. So far, about 50% of the S&P earnings are reported and about 79% have beat their earnings estimates, although most companies had tempered their outlooks in the previous quarters. So, good news on the beats, but few were working off a high bar.
The big, planned event this week is the Fed’s interest rate statement and Chair Powell’s press conference on Wednesday. Expect a 25bp hike despite a big, unplanned event of the third major bank failure over the weekend. (The FDIC seized First Republic over the weekend and JP Morgan bought it from the FDIC – ho, hum, that’s what we do.). The Fed’s statements, while always important, will be parsed and analyzed as to whether this is the end of the rate increase cycle and how long will the Fed pause before taking any further action. The consensus is its next action will be a cut, but opinions on when that happens are so diverse, there really is no consensus.
The financial markets do not always make sense in the near term. We are in a period where that appears to be the case. To reduce inflation, the Fed is working to slow the economy. Indications are the economy is slowing, but inflation is now being stubborn after an initial drop from relatively high levels. All this points to the need to squeeze growth for longer. Despite this, stock indices have moved and are moving higher. We are not excited about chasing equity prices at this juncture. Sticking to long term strategic allocations to equities will always beat trying to time it.
“History provides a crucial insight regarding market crises: they are inevitable, painful and ultimately surmountable.” – Shelby M.C. Davis
Weekly Commentary (4/24/23) – Markets Finish Mostly Lower on the Week
April 24, 2023
Equity markets finished mostly lower last week as investors digested first quarter earnings reports and economic releases.
For the week, the DJIA lost 0.19% while the S&P 500 dropped 0.09%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq finished lower by 0.42%. For the week, the MSCI EAFE Index inched higher by 0.05% while emerging market equities (MSCI EM) dropped 1.95%. Small company stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, advanced 0.59%. Fixed income, represented by the Bloomberg/Barclays Aggregate, finished lower by 0.23% for the week as yields moved slightly higher. As a result, the 10 YR US Treasury closed at a yield of 3.57% (up 5bps from the previous week’s closing yield of ~3.52%) as investors reacted to tepid bank earnings and expectations for a May rate hike by the Fed. Gold prices closed at $1,979.50/oz – down 1.13%. Oil prices moved lower by 5.53% to $77.87.
Economic news released last week confirmed a fairly resilient yet weakening economy (no surprise). Housing starts dropped 0.8% month-over-month in March as higher interest rates impacted both builders and new home buyers. Initial US jobless claims came in at 245k last week, higher than the expected 240k. Finally, S&P Global’s Flash April PMI Composite rose to 53.5 – better than expected but indicating that inflation continues to be sticky. Average prices for goods and services increased for the third consecutive month with April’s increase being the fastest since September.
As we close out April this week (believe it or not), expect a lot of news flow. Earnings are on tap for 170 companies in the S&P 500, including some of the biggest technology companies (Apple, Amazon, Google/Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and others). Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales data will be released on Tuesday. Wednesday brings an update on Durable Goods Orders. The closely watched PCE inflation report will be released on Friday, and that should give investors some insight into the Fed’s upcoming meetings and thinking. Also, on Friday will be the release of April’s Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for April.
There is an expression – never short a dull market – with the VIX index (also known as the fear index) trading around 17 (down from ~33 last year) it seems as though traders are somewhat complacent. We expect some market volatility this week as investors digest a slew of earnings and economic releases. Diversification, patience and a bias towards quality will help investors manage through this period of uncertainty.
Enjoy the week.
“Try to be like the turtle – at ease in your own shell.” – Bill Copeland
ND&S Weekly Commentary 4.17.23 – Most Markets Advance Despite Recession and Inflation Concerns
April 17, 2023
Equity markets were higher globally last week while US Gov’t and corporate bonds had a mild retreat.
For the week, the DJIA moved up 1.20% while the S&P 500 added 0.82%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq grew by 0.30% on the week. Small company stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, rose 1.54%. International markets were generally stronger than the US last week as the MSCI EAFE index gained 2.25% and the MSCI EM advanced 1.66%. Fixed income, represented by the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate, had a down week, falling 1.10% as a downtrend in interest rates reversed. The mortgage rate bellwether 10 YR US Treasury closed at a yield of 3.52% (up ~22bps from the previous week’s closing yield of 3.30%). Gold prices continued to climb (+0.80%) and closed at $2,019/oz. Oil (WTI) prices also continued an uptrend off a recent bottom in mid-March (~$67) to finish at $82.16/barrel.
Despite content from the recent FOMC meeting minutes that actually forecasts a recession for the US in 2023 (!), equities continued an uptrend that began in October 2022. With the Bears arguing we have not seen a proper Bear Market bottom and the Bulls pointing to October, equities are trudging higher. According to FactSet, the Q1 estimate decline for the S&P 500 is ~6.7%. This does not support the bull case, yet investors seem to be looking past this and investing for a more distant horizon. If inflation submits, and interest rates stay stable or move lower, this stormy period for both bonds and equities will likely pass. In the opposite case, we could simply be in the eye of the storm and have more rough sailing ahead.
Last week’s economic releases included CPI data, which was positive, on a relative basis. The CPI was only up 0.1% compared to 0.4% in the previous month and a 0.2% consensus forecast. This led to a 5.0% CPI YoY, which was lower than the 5.1% forecast and compares well to a 6.0% YoY for the previous month. Core CPI came in on the forecast target of 0.4% for the month and 5.6% YoY – a tick higher than 5.5% YoY for the previous month. Equity investors, always looking for sunny skies, thought this was great news.
We are potentially at the pivot point for inflation – is it stuck, is the decline slowing, or is it dropping like a stone? Like weight loss, the initial move down from peak is much easier than the next stages and we may be seeing some resistance here. That could mean the Fed will have to further constrict the economy’s intake by potentially raising rates more than the consensus believes, holding rates higher, longer, or both. The optimists envision a simple slide back to the goldilocks zone of 2-2.5% inflation and full employment. We have many doubts it will be that simple.
Revenue and earnings reports, as well as future guidance, will be announced over the next few weeks. These reports are often a catalyst for significant market moves. In this perverse environment where results that are too good garner fears the Fed will need to move rates higher and hold there longer, it is even a greater guessing game than normal as to how the market will react to Q1 earnings. While true investors do not get let themselves get too caught up in these gyrations, there are plenty of short-term players who try to capitalize on moment-to-moment news, and that amplifies the market swings.
“The best way to measure your investing success is not by whether you’re beating the market but by whether you’ve put in place a financial plan and a behavioral discipline that are likely to get you where you want to go.”– Benjamin Graham
ND&S Weekly Commentary 4.10.23 – Markets Modestly Lower in Short Week
April 10, 2023
Equity markets were modestly lower during the holiday-shortened week amid signs that the US economy is losing steam.
For the week, the DJIA advanced 0.69% while the S&P 500 slipped 0.06%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined by 1.08% on the week. International markets were modestly higher last week as the MSCI ACWI Ex USA index gained 0.10%. Small company stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, gave back 2.66%. Fixed income, represented by the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate, had a strong week (up 0.49%) as rates declined across all time periods. As a result, the 10 YR US Treasury closed at a yield of 3.30% (down ~25bps from the previous week’s closing yield of 3.55%). Gold prices broke through a psychological resistance level last week to close at $2,002/oz. Oil (WTI) prices jumped higher to finish at $80.70/barrel as OPEC+ surprised the market with a 1.6 million barrel per day output cut.
The U.S. economy started 2023 off strong, with many Wall-Street economists calling for positive real GDP growth upwards of 3%. However, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model now shows the U.S. economy forecasting Q1 real growth of only 1.5%, down from 3.5% two weeks ago. A sharp drop in the ISM manufacturing and nonmanufacturing PMIs, and a larger-than-expected decline in job openings in February were just some of the economic data misses last week.
Earnings season will kick off this week with several reports from the banking and consumer discretionary sectors. The financial reports and follow-up commentary from the banking sectors will be closely watched given the fallout from the SVB and Signature Bank failures a few weeks ago. Other important economic data releases this week include reports on inflation (both CPI and PPI) and retail sales for the month of March.
“Either you run the day or the day runs you.” – Jim Rohn
ND&S Weekly Commentary 4.3.23 – Equities End Q1 on Strong Note
April 3, 2023
Equity markets closed out the first quarter out on a strong note as it seems investors are looking beyond potential near-term challenges and are expecting a dovish shift in monetary policy.
For the week, the DJIA increased 3.22% while the S&P 500 gained 3.50%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 3.37%. International markets were also strong with the MSCI EAFE Index (developed countries) finishing higher by 4.02% while emerging market equities (MSCI EM) added 1.95%. Small company stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, jumped 3.94% for the week. Fixed income, represented by the Bloomberg Aggregate, declined 0.46% for the week as yields moved considerably higher across all areas of the yield curve. As a result, the 10 YR US Treasury closed at a yield of 3.48% (up ~ 10 bps from the previous week’s closing yield of ~3.38%). Gold prices closed at $1,980/oz. – down 0.75%. Oil prices jumped higher to close at $74.37 per barrel, up over 9.0% on the week.
In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, vice chair Michael Barr called Silicon Valley Bank a textbook case of mismanagement … we would agree. In response to the SVB and Signature Bank closures, the White House has proposed stricter banking rules on liquidity requirements and annual stress tests on smaller banks … this would bring on its own set of challenges. Any additional liquidity problems are likely contained now with the emergency lending measures instituted by the Fed.
Economic data released last week showed that inflation may be beginning to moderate. The Fed’s favorite inflation measure, core PCE deflator, rose 0.3% in February, much less than what was expected and a deceleration from 0.6% in January. Also released on Friday, the University of Michigan’s measure of one-year inflation expectations came in at 3.6%, its lowest reading since 2021.
Markets have raced out of the gates in 2023, recuperating some of the declines felt in 2023. The best performing areas of the equity markets have been those which are considered growth stocks. In fact, the Morningstar Dividend Composite which tracks the US dividend sector, was only up a modest 0.55% for the first three months. Markets are reflecting that we have likely seen peak interest rates. This is not a sure-bet and something we will be continuing to monitor in the weeks ahead.
Best wishes for a Happy Passover and Happy Easter.
“The only sure weapon against bad ideas is better ideas.” – Alfred Whitney Griswold
Weekly Commentary (3/27/23) – Markets Push Higher Despite Fed Hike and Banking Fears
March 27, 2023
Both equity and fixed income markets continue to show persistent volatility, but both sides of the market still rose last week. Rates and stock price levels gyrated throughout the week in anticipation of, and then in reaction to, the FOMC’s interest rate decision and its commentary thereon. The verdict: confusion. The market loathes uncertainty, and it is very blurry view for those who try to model and predict the economic environment we are moving towards. Will the Fed cut? When? Will they hold? For how long? Have we hit a rut in the move towards lower inflation? Will we have a sharp rise in unemployment and a “hard landing” or can we “slow grow” our way out of high inflation? There is also the growing threat of global geo-political tensions intensifying and the event risks that portends.
For the week, the DJIA gained 1.18% and the S&P 500 added 1.41%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq finished up 1.67% as lower (market) rates continued to draw investors to tech stocks. For the week, the MSCI EAFE Index rose 1.59% as fears of a spreading bank crisis subsided and European investors bid prices higher. Emerging market equities (MSCI EM) had the largest advance among the major indices by jumping 2.23% over the week. Small company stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, struggled but still added 0.53% – its relatively higher exposure regional banks has been a headwind since SVB imploded. Fixed income, represented by the Bloomberg/Barclays Aggregate, finished higher by 0.5% for the week as investors are still pushing yields lower despite the backdrop of the Fed hiking rates and suggesting its Fed Funds target rate is not going to be adjusted down for quite some time. As a result, the 10 YR US Treasury closed at a yield of 3.38% (down 5bps from the previous week’s closing yield of ~3.43%). Gold inched higher by 1.06% to close at $1,994/oz. Oil prices recovered $3.22 to close at $69.96/bbl.
During the past week, fears of banking issues lingered over the financial markets. There is the fear of real fundamental issues, and there is also the fear of others overreacting and panicking – “the fear of the fear”. In general, investors are absorbing the SVB/Signature/Credit Suisse developments reasonably well and it seems there is higher probability that there is no contagion spreading and investors can resume having confidence in the banking system.
The coming week’s economic data releases includes the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE) on Friday. This is the Fed’s “preferred measure of inflation” and forecasts predict this will show signs of cooling inflation – January’s number was 5.4% YoY and was hotter than December. Housing data (S&P Case-Shiller home price index, FHFA home price index, and Pending U.S. home sales) is released this week, as well, and is expected to show further contraction in housing activity. Michael Barr is testifying before Congress on banking on Tuesday and Wednesday and given the recent focus on banking regulation and enforcement, his testimony will get some attention, but no major reveals are expected.
Spring is here notwithstanding what the groundhog predicted – another pundit making predictions without fear of reprisal despite frequent fails! We predict more choppy sailing as the economy is weaned off easy money and fiscal stimulus. Stay patient.
“People often say there’s lots of uncertainty, but when was there ever certainty in the markets, the economy, or the future? I’m just trying to understand the present.” – Bill Miller
ND&S Weekly Commentary 3.23.23 – Markets Finished Mixed Amidst Banking Stress
March 20, 2023
Equity markets finished mixed last week as markets digested yet another crisis within the global banking system. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank on Monday sent markets lower as investors feared a contagion in global banks. Efforts by the Federal Reserve (responsible for a good part of this mess …) and other central banks helped to shore-up banking reserves and investor confidence.
For the week, the DJIA lost 0.11% while the S&P 500 gained 1.47%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq finished up 4.44% as lower rates and a more predictable stream of earnings emboldened investors to add to beaten down tech stocks. For the week, the MSCI EAFE Index fell 3.11% as news of a potential failure of Credit Suisse rattled European investors. Emerging market equities (MSCI EM) lost 0.26%. Small company stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, lost 2.58% due to its higher concentration of regional banks. Fixed income, represented by the Bloomberg/Barclays Aggregate, finished higher by 1.4% for the week as yields moved lower on a flight-to-safety move. As a result, the 10 YR US Treasury closed at a yield of 3.43% (down 27bps from the previous week’s closing yield of ~3.70%). Gold was the big winner on the week as it rallied 5.69% to close at $1,973.50/oz. Oil prices dropped $9.94 to close at $66.74/bbl as recession fears and global oversupply weighed on prices.
Economic news released last week centered mostly around the global banking system and persistent inflation. Monday brought news about Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. On Tuesday, the BLS reported that inflation grew at an annual rate of 6.0% in February – down from 6.4% in January and in-line with expectations. Wednesday’s news centered on the potential collapse of Credit Suisse (something that has been brewing for several years …). On Thursday, the European Central Bank hiked interest rates 50 bps (as expected) while Swiss regulators provided stabilization funds to Credit Suisse. Friday’s news centered on a $30Bn rescue package from 11 large banks in the U.S. to help shore up smaller domestic banks. Yes, parts of the U.S. banking system are stressed, but we do not see the makings of systemic banking crisis in the U.S.. Most U.S. banks are very well capitalized and are able to manage through this interest rate hiking cycle and potential economic slowdown.
The Federal Reserve meets this Tuesday and Wednesday, and investors are anticipating a 25 basis point rate increase. Some investment houses, like Goldman Sachs, are calling for the Fed to pause. Whether or not the Fed hikes 25 bps or pauses, the good news is that the Fed is likely done with their tightening.
We expect continued volatility until this banking stress calms down and until we see more clarity from the Fed and the impact of their tightening. A word of caution regarding social media – several hedge funds (and individual investors) posted false or misleading information that dozens of individual banks would collapse and go out of business last week … only to find out later that many of these hedge funds were short the banks they were mentioning. Charles Schwab was even mentioned as a bank that was under enormous stress. Schwab publicly reiterated their solid financial situation and, as a show of confidence, a number of Schwab executives bought stock at the open on Tuesday morning.
Stay safe and let’s hope for a calm week!
“If you don’t have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?” – John Wooden
Deal The Cards Already!
May 30, 2023
Stocks ended the week mixed, as investors struggled with the debt ceiling squabbling and slightly higher than expected inflation numbers.
For the week, the DJIA was down 1.0%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq continued its run for the fifth consecutive week of relative out-performance to the DJIA and S&P 500, up 2.5% and 24.4% year-to-date. Tech continues to drive the markets with artificial intelligence plays lifting the spirits of aggressive growth investors. Foreign equities lost ground with developed markets (MSCI-EAFE) down 2.3% and emerging markets (MSCI-EM) fell 0.4%. The U.S. stock market has been amazingly resilient, with optimism that the debt ceiling will be raised before entering into the default zone.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, the core personal consumption index (PCE) rose to an annual rate of 4.7% in April, slightly higher than expected and still well above its target of 2%. In April, consumer spending increased 0.8% from March, well above expectations of 0.4%. Consumers continue spending despite higher inflation and interest rates, and are dipping into savings. The personal savings rate of 4.1% for April was 0.4% lower than March. Overall, the U.S. economy grew faster in the 1st Q than previous estimates with GDP growing 1.3% annualized compared to the estimated 1.1%. The hope is that the Fed will pause its run of 10 consecutive monthly rate increases at its June 14th meeting. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose 10 basis points (bps) to 3.80%, its highest level in two and a half months.
Important economic data released this holiday-shortened week will include consumer confidence, employment reports, and the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index.
We suggest that investors maintain their longer-term focus with a well-diversified portfolio, and extend fixed income duration. The weak breath of the market and huge rally in AI tech stocks require prudent restraint.
“Those who have long enjoyed such privileges as we enjoy forget in time that men have died to win them.” – Franklin D. Roosevelt