ND&S Weekly Commentary (1/4/21) – Markets End Year on High Note
January 4, 2021
U.S. equities closed the last week of 2020 at or close to record all-time highs. For the week, the S&P 500, DJIA and NASDAQ were up 1.45%, 1.35% and 0.66%, respectively. International markets also finished on a high note with the MSCI EAFE adding 1.44% and emerging markets (MSCI EM) jumping 3.16%. The lone detractor were U.S. small cap equities (Russell 2000), which saw some profit taking to finish lower by 1.41%.
It was a slow week for news and economic reports with pending home sales declining 2.6% m/m. That will change in the first week of the year as there is a run-off election set for Tuesday in Georgia that will determine the direction of power in Congress. Market consensus is for Republicans to pick up at least one seat in the Senate giving them a majority. Markets do best under split control in Washington as it will usually foster an environment of bipartisanship. Markets would likely react negatively to a Democratic sweep … like any decline, it will ultimately be temporary. This week, look for reports on mfg. and non-mfg. PMIs with the big economic release being the U.S. Jobs Report for December. Expectations are modest with only 68,000 jobs being added and the unemployment rate increasing slightly to 6.8%. This would be a significant cooling from the 245,000 jobs added in November.
Interest rates were little changed last week as the 10 year U.S. Treasury note finished at 0.93%, down slightly from 0.94% the prior week. What a difference a year makes … many 2020 year-end estimates at the beginning of the year were for the 10yr U.S. Treasury to finish above 3.00%. Nobody saw the 360° turn in monetary policy that was required by the outbreak of Covid-19. The Federal Reserve reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining low rates for the foreseeable future.
Looking ahead to the New Year, the passage of a $900 billion stimulus package and the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines should help support consumer sentiment and bolster the economic recovery. Corporate earnings should also start to look better as the year unfolds.
Best wishes for a happy, healthy and peaceful New Year!
“You can change. And you can be an agent of change.” – Laura Dern
ND&S Weekly 12.28.20 – “Auld Lang Syne”
December 28, 2020
Last week investors and traders had a day and half off for Christmas. Congress finally approved a $900 billion stimulus package, a long awaited gift to those in desperate need. However, Trump threatened to veto it unless the $600 payment to needy individuals was increased to $2,000 (the bill was signed last night).
As a result, US stocks closed the Christmas week mixed and with relatively low trading volume. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 0.34%, the S&P 500 lost 0.49% and the tech heavy Nasdaq rose 0.32%. Despite the US dollar sliding 0.1% to 90.30, foreign markets weakened as Developed (EAFE) and Emerging (EEM) equities slid 1.08% and 1.51%, respectively. The Russell 2000 index, made up of U.S. small cap companies, closed the week near its all-time high, gaining 1.33%. Since its low on March 18th, the index has surged 102%. The yield on the benchmark 10 year US Treasury note fell 1 basis point to 0.94%. Crude oil (WTI) rose 0.4% to $48.30 per barrel and gold bounced 0.5% to $1875 per ounce.
There was very encouraging news about the successful roll-out of Pfizer’s and Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccines being distributed to US front-line workers and long-term care residents. Concerns grew, however, over increasing infection rates and the spreading of a new Covid-19 strain in the United Kingdom which could be 70% more contagious.
On the economic front, existing home sales fell 2.5% in November (m/m), largely in-line with expectations. New home sales fell 11% in November missing estimates. Housing supply remains tight with inventory at 2.3months given current rate of sales, marking an all-time low. Initial unemployment claims came in at 803,000, the report beat estimates but remains stubbornly high. The New Year holiday-shortened week will have investors and economists looking at a few important economic reports. On Tuesday, the S&P Case-Shiller home price index for October, the Chicago area manufacturing activity and pending home sales on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims on Thursday will be reported.
The Federal Reserve’s interventions have made all the difference and housing and stock prices have surged since last March. The result has created a much polarized “wealth effect.” The bottom 20% of households account for only 9% of consumer spending while the top 20% generates 39%. The Biden administration will push their programs for higher taxation of the wealthy and more fiscal support for states and municipalities and the republicans will fight back. The senate race in Georgia becomes more and more meaningful to our economic recovery, and the strength of the financial markets.
We wish you and your families a happy and healthy New Year!
“Hope smiles from the threshold of the year to come,’ whispering ‘It will be happier.” —Alfred Lord Tennyson
ND&S Weekly Commentary (12/21/20) – Markets and Coronavirus Cases Move Higher
December 21, 2020
Markets advanced last week in anticipation of the FDA’s approval of the Moderna vaccine and the expectation that Congress will pass another stimulus package. Also, the Fed held its final meeting of 2020 and reiterated its dovish and highly accommodative stance. Adding to investors’ confidence was the Fed’s announcement on Friday that banks will be able to buy back shares following a successful stress test. Offsetting this good news was a surge in coronavirus cases and news out of the U.K. of a new more virulent (yet less deadly) strain of coronavirus.
For the week, the DJIA advanced 0.46% while the S&P 500 gained 1.29%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 3.07%. Developed international markets also moved higher. For the week, the MSCI EAFE index gained 2.01% while emerging market equities (MSCI EM) finished higher by 0.90%. Small company stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, finished ahead by 3.09% for the week. Fixed income, represented by the Bloomberg/Barclays Aggregate, finished the week slightly lower as the index closed lower by 0.08%. As a result, the 10 YR US Treasury closed at a yield of 0.95% (up ~5 bps from the previous week’s closing yield of ~0.90%). Gold prices closed at $1,885.70/oz – up 2.5% on the week. Oil prices jumped $2.53 (or 5.4%) last week as investors bet that an economic recovery will lead to increased demand for oil.
Economic news released last week was mixed. On Tuesday, the Fed announced that industrial production for November advanced 0.4%, ahead of expectations for a 0.3% advance. On Wednesday, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that November retail sales fell 1.1%, lower than expectations for a 0.3% decrease. Also on Wednesday, U.S. Markit PMIs were mixed, but still strong and in expansion. Manufacturing declined by 0.2 to 56.5, exceeding expectations for a 55.8 reading. On Thursday, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that housing starts jumped 1.2% month-over-month in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.547 million (ahead of consensus for 1.54 million). Also on Thursday, the Department of Labor reported that weekly initial jobless claims increased to 885,000, missing an expected 808,000 claims. Economic news in the holiday-shortened week ahead will focus on GDP, home sales and employment data.
We suggest investors stay close to their long-term target asset allocations with a slight defensive bias. Stay Safe and Happy Holidays!
“It is the set of the sails, not the direction of the wind that determines which way we will go.” – Jim Rohn
ND&S Weekly Commentary 12.14.20 – Stocks Take a Breather
December 15, 2020
Stocks took a breather last week as coronavirus cases continued to surge and stimulus talks have led to little tangible results.
For this past week, the S&P 500, DJIA, and NASDAQ lost some ground declining 0.95%, 0.54%, and 0.69%, respectively. Small company stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, bucked the trend as the index closed higher by 1.03% for the week. International markets were mixed last week as the MSCI EAFE declined 0.51% and emerging markets increased 0.54%. Bonds had a strong week as the Bloomberg/Barclays Aggregate finished the week up 0.35%. As a result, the 10 YR US Treasury closed at a yield of 0.90% (down 7 bps from the previous week’s closing yield of 0.97%). Gold prices were flat last week closing at $1842/oz. Oil (WTI) moved marginally higher to close at $46.56/barrel.
Economic reports last week were mixed. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported at 0.2% in November, beating estimates of a 0.1% rise. Over the last twelve months, the CPI has increased 1.2%; this, despite the unprecedented support from monetary policy and disruption to supply chains. Jobless claims last week rose to 853k, missing estimates of 716k. Lastly, the producer price index (PPI) for final demand came in at 0.1% in November, matching estimates. In the week ahead, there will be reports on industrial production, retail sales, housing and manufacturing. Additionally, the Federal Reserve will conclude their final meeting of the year and will hold a press conference at the conclusion. Little change is expected from the meeting, as most attention will be on their outlook for short-term rates and price inflation.
The Santa Claus rally for stocks likely came early this year after a big rally that started just before the election. They have taken a pause recently which we think could be healthy for the markets in 2021. We will be closely monitoring the roll-out of the Coronavirus vaccines which should help economic growth in 2021. Stay well!
“Courage is being scare to death … and saddling up anyways.” – John Wayne
ND&S Weekly Commentary 12.7.20 – Hoping For Good News
December 7, 2020
The monthly jobs report released on Friday was much weaker than expected as the data showed that 245,000 jobs were added, missing estimates of 440,000 new jobs. The report was the fifth straight month of slowing gains which showed the job market is losing steam. The worsening pandemic will likely result in more restrictions and job losses which will continue to put pressure on the U.S. economy in the near-term. Perversely however, the much weaker jobs report helped to lift stocks as investors hoped that the disappointing report would put pressure on Congress to enact a new stimulus package before the end of the year.
For the week, stocks rose across the board with the S&P 500, DJIA and the NASDAQ up 1.7%, 1.2% and 2.1%, respectively. International stocks also rose with the MSCI EAFE rising 1.0% and emerging markets (MSCI EM) up 1.7%. The best performing sectors last week were energy, healthcare and technology and the worst performing was utilities. Also, indicative of a continued broadening of the stock markets, small cap stocks as represented by the Russell 2000 were up 2.0%.
Fixed income markets also reacted to the prospects for additional stimulus as bond prices dropped and the yield on the 10 year U.S. Treasury rose from 0.84% to 0.97%. Oil (WTI) closed at $46.26/barrel, up 1.60% last week. Gold rebounded last week to close at $1,843/oz.
This week look for economic reports on job openings and CPI both of which should be modest. The bigger news this week should be hopefully an approval by the FDA of the Pfizer Coronavirus vaccine followed shortly by Moderna’s . Stay Well!
“I am prepared for the worst, but hope for the best.” – Benjamin Disraeli
ND&S Weekly Commentary 11.30.20 – More Stimulus Please
November 30, 2020
The Thanksgiving holiday-shortened week gave investors and traders a lot to be thankful for. The US and global markets all performed very well for the week and the month of November. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) crossed the 30,000 mark for the first time, with its best monthly return since January 1987. Both the DJIA and the S&P 500 realized their best November returns since 1928.
Investors have been challenged by the positive vaccine news and the escalating COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. The election turmoil has also brought with it uncertainties and anxieties over political control and economic strategies going forward.
For the week, the DJIA returned 2.25%, the S&P 500 was up 2.3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which had been under pressure, rebounded 2.97%. Foreign stocks also felt relief with Developed and Emerging markets gaining 2.24% and 1.79%, respectively. The slew of positive vaccine news and encouraging economic prospects lifted cyclical companies which are the most economically sensitive. In November, materials, financials, and industrials have rallied 13% while energy surged nearly 34%. In the last month there have been the highest inflows into global equity funds since January 2018. The growth versus value investment debate is back in the forefront. There’s been a rotation from growth to value as investors look for stocks with upside when the pandemic ends.
The coronavirus infection and hospitalization rates continue to surge with 266,000 people dying with the virus in the US. More lockdowns and delays on additional stimulus and fiscal spending will undoubtedly put pressure on equity prices. New unemployment claims are worse than any time prior to the pandemic hitting the 1.1 million mark last week. The health of our economy and financial markets depends on a new round of economic stimulus and a successful rollout of the COVID-19 vaccines. Interest rates remained virtually unchanged for the week with the yield of the 10 year US Treasury ending at 0.84%. The price of US crude soared 7% to $45.38 per barrel benefiting from the improved outlook for demand.
We expect markets to be choppy with tax loss harvesting and momentum stock profit taking to hinge on investors and traders reacting to COVID and stimulus news. Please remain diversified and stay in-line with your long term investment goals. There will be more important economic news this week with Federal Reserve comments and reports on pending home sales and the unemployment rate.
Stay safe!
“Appreciation is a wonderful thing. It makes what is excellent in others belong to us as well.” – Voltaire
ND&S Weekly Commentary 11.23.20 – Markets Tempered by Virus Surge
November 23, 2020
U.S. equity markets dipped last week as investors weighed the realities around rising Covid-19 infections. In response, we saw more cities and states implement restrictions in an effort to slow the spread.
For this past week, the S&P 500 declined 0.73% while the DJIA gave back 0.65%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ ticked higher by 0.25%. Small company stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, bucked the trend as the index closed higher by 2.38% for the week. International equity markets also finished higher as the MSCI EAFE and emerging markets (MSCI EM) added on 1.88% and 1.77%, respectively. Bonds had a strong week as the Bloomberg/Barclays Aggregate finished the week up 0.59%. As a result, the 10 YR US Treasury closed at a yield of 0.83% (down 6 bps from the previous week’s closing yield of 0.89%). Gold prices closed at $1876/oz. – down 0.69% on the week. Oil (WTI) moved higher to close at $42.15 – up 5.03% on the week.
Economic news released last week was mixed. Retail sales advanced 0.3% in October, missing estimates of a 0.5% increase. Industrial production increased 1.1% in October, beating estimates of 1.0%. Existing home sales increased 4.3% in October and is now up a whopping 26.6% from the same time last year. Housing continues to be a bright spot for the economy as support from low rates continues. Lastly, weekly jobless claims were 742,000, missing estimates of 711,000. Despite the holiday-shortened week, there will be reports on Markit US manufacturing and services PMIs, personal income, durable goods orders, and consumer confidence. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will also report their update for 3Q2020 GDP on Wednesday.
Although we must navigate the market and economies response to rising case counts near-term, there is light at the end of the tunnel and multiple vaccines should be widely available by Spring/Summer 2021. We expect markets to continue to be choppy like this past week. We have witnessed a rotation in recent weeks with areas that previously lagged benefiting the most on the vaccine news. As always, investor focus should remain on long-term goals.
First and foremost, we hope that all of you and your families are staying healthy and safe during this recent spike in cases. Although this year will feel a little different due to COVID-19, we wish to extend to all a very Happy Thanksgiving!
“An attitude of gratitude brings great things.” – Yogi Hhajan
ND&S Weekly Commentary )Weekly Commentary (11/16/20) – Markets Mostly Higher on Vaccine News
November 16, 2020
Most markets advanced last week on news that Pfizer’s vaccine candidate was greater than 90% effective in preventing covid-19. Despite an ominous rise in covid-19 cases last week, investors chose to focus on the great news out of Pfizer along with optimism for a similar outcome for Moderna’s vaccine candidate. Investors rotated out of high-flying technology names and into economically-sensitive names as evidenced by the last week’s results for the Russell 1000 – the growth index was negative by 1.27% while the value index shot up 5.69%.
For the week, the DJIA advanced 4.19% while the S&P 500 gained 2.16%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.55%. Developed international markets moved nicely higher as investors added to beaten-down international stocks. For the week, the MSCI EAFE index gained 3.89% while emerging market equities (MSCI EM) jumped 1.03%. Small company stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, finished ahead by 6.13% for the week. Fixed income, represented by the Bloomberg/Barclays Aggregate, finished the week slightly lower as the index closed lower by 0.14%. As a result, the 10 YR US Treasury closed at a yield of 0.89% (up ~6 bps from the previous week’s closing yield of ~0.83%). Gold prices closed at $1,885.70/oz – down 3.31% on the week. Oil prices jumped $2.99 (or 8.1%) last week as investors bet that an economic recovery will lead to increased demand for oil.
Economic news released last week was mixed. On Thursday the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in October, missing expectations for a 0.1% advance. The CPI advanced 1.2% year-over-year. Also on Thursday the Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims for the week ending November 7 were 709,000, better than expectations of 740,000. On Friday the BLS reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) gained 0.3% in October, ahead of expectations for a 0.2% advance. The PPI advanced 0.5% year-over-year. Neither the CPI nor PPI point to unreasonable or out of control inflation, and this gives the Fed more time to remain accommodating. Economic news in the week ahead will focus on retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and existing home sales.
We suggest investors stay close to their long-term target asset allocations with a slight defensive bias. Stay Safe!
“Perseverance is not a long race; it is many short races one after the other.” – Walter Elliot
ND&S Weekly Commentary (11.9.20) – Markets Rebound
November 9, 2020
Equity markets rebounded last week on generally good economic news and election results that indicate neither Democrats nor Republicans received a broad mandate. Divided governments are widely thought to be good for the stock market. Also this morning, U.S. equity markets are up strongly on the announcement by Pfizer and BioNTech that their Covid-19 vaccine candidate is more than 90% effective in latest trials.
The S&P 500, DJIA, and NASDAQ were up 7.4%, 6.9% and 9.1 %, respectively. The best performing sectors for the week were technology, healthcare, and materials. The worst performing sector continued to be energy. International equities also advanced with MSCI EAFE up 8.1% and emerging markets (MSCI EM) higher by 6.6%. Bond prices rose last week with the rate on the 10 year U.S. Treasury dropping from 0.88% to 0.83%.
In economic news last week, Friday’s jobs report showed that hiring picked up last month at a faster pace than expected with an increase of 683,000. As a result, the unemployment rate dropped to 6.9%, beating estimates of 7.7%. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reported their purchasing manager’s index (PMI) for manufacturing at 59.3%, much better than estimates of 55.8%. The Non-Manfacturing Index which tracks the services sector fell to 56.6% missing estimates of 57.5%. The Federal Open Market Committee met last week leaving their policy unchanged. Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned the need for “further (economic) support” to help fight the effects from the Covid-19 virus.
As mentioned above, markets are reacting positively this morning on Covid-19 vaccine news with the strongest action on names hit hardest by the pandemic. We continue to recommend that investors maintain a fully diversified portfolio consistent with their long-term objectives and risk tolerance.
“It always seems impossible until it’s done.” – Nelson Mandela
ND&S Weekly Commentary 1.11.21- Markets Kick Off New Year in the Green
January 11, 2021
Markets advanced last week as investors looked past political turmoil and focused on expectations of more stimulus out of Washington D.C.. Democratic victories in Georgia raised the likelihood of increased government spending to support a pandemic-weakened economy.
For the week, the DJIA advanced 1.61% while the S&P 500 gained 1.83%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 2.43%. Developed international markets also moved higher. For the week, the MSCI EAFE index gained 3.16% while emerging market equities (MSCI EM) finished higher by 4.83%. Small company stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, finished ahead by 5.91% for the week. Fixed income, represented by the Bloomberg/Barclays Aggregate, finished the week lower as the index lost 0.94%. As a result, the 10 YR US Treasury closed at a yield of 1.13% (up ~20 bps from the previous week’s closing yield of ~0.93%). Gold prices closed at $1,834.10/oz – down 3.1% on the week. Oil prices jumped $3.72 (or 7.7%) last week as Saudi Arabia decided to cut oil production even as inventories were falling.
Economic news released last week was mixed. On Tuesday, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reported that December’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) advanced to 60.7% versus expectations for a level of 56.7%. On Wednesday, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that new orders for manufactured goods advanced 1.0% in November – beating an expected increase of 0.7%. On Thursday, the ISM reported that the Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) advanced to 57.2%, outpacing expectations for a 54.5% reading. On Friday, the Department of Labor reported that the U.S. economy lost 140,000 jobs in December, a big miss against expectations for an increase of 50,000 jobs. Despite the decline in jobs, unemployment remained at 6.7% (better than estimates of 6.8%). The employment report was a stark reminder that the COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact economies and workers around the world.
Markets and accompanying valuations have advanced quite a bit over the past twelve months and we see signs that volatility will likely increase. We suggest investors stay close to their long-term target asset allocations with a slight defensive bias. Stay Safe!
“Your attitude, not your aptitude, will determine your altitude.” – Zig Ziglar