Forward is Foggy. Reverse is Broken.

What Happened
Markets ended the week largely unchanged, but the macro picture continues to evolve.

• The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, while the Nasdaq declined 0.4%, ending a multi-week rally.
• Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, came in at 2.6% year-over-year—its lowest level since early 2021—pushing yields lower.
• The 10-year Treasury finished at 4.19%, down from 4.31%.
• Fed officials reiterated a cautious stance, while futures now imply a ~70% chance of one rate cut by year-end.
• Oil prices climbed nearly 3%, reflecting tighter inventories and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
• Credit spreads narrowed slightly, and volatility remained low—masking a market that increasingly appears priced for perfection.

Why It Matters
We’re driving forward in fog—with a cracked rearview mirror.
Key indicators are out of sync. The economy is decelerating, but not contracting. Labor markets are tight, yet wage growth is cooling. Consumer behavior reflects strength, even as demographic and productivity trends suggest softness.
This divergence—between structural maturity and behavioral momentum—has created a market that looks stable, but feels unstable. That’s where the real risk lies: in apparent clarity. The kind that tempts investors to drift, not decide.

What We Believe
Our work is not about guessing correctly. It’s about acting consistently—on behalf of institutions and families who don’t have time to play catch-up later.

• Diversification is prudence, not caution.
  When the future is less predictable, owning a wider range of return streams isn’t a hedge—it’s a way to stay exposed to whatever wins next.
• Cash beyond necessity is drag, not defense.
  As real yields soften and inflation declines, idle capital becomes increasingly costly.
• Rebalancing is discipline, not pessimism.
  Trimming gains before they become expectations is how real portfolios hold up over time.

This market rewards posture over prediction. We’re here to manage for the life you want—not the headlines we happen to be living through.

What to Consider

• Cash Positioning
  Reassess excess liquidity. Beyond 6–12 months of known needs, cash may be doing more harm than good. Even short-term investments are offering more meaningful returns.
• Tax-Efficient Rebalancing
  With YTD tech performance and volatility in other sectors, this is an ideal time to harvest gains and losses ahead of year-end.
• Proactive Tax Planning
  With potential policy shifts in 2026, now is the time to evaluate Roth conversions, donor-advised funds, and long-term capital gain realization.

If you’d like to discuss any of these updates in the context of your investment portfolio, we’re here. These moments—foggy, calm, easy to misread—are exactly when good investing does its best work.

“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second-best time is before the next Fed meeting.”

— Updated Proverb