brown leaves by Simon Kuznetsov courtesy of Unsplash.

Weekly Commentary (9/15/25) – It’s up to the Fed

NDS Wealth Advisors |

Markets advanced last week as investors renewed their positive outlook for artificial intelligence and expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

The S&P 500 increased 1.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.0%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 2.0%, finishing at a new record high.  International equities also gained with developed markets (MSCI EAFE) up 1.2% and emerging markets (MSCI EM) soaring 4.0% largely because of healthier currency valuations.

The consumer price index (CPI) was in line with analysts’ expectations, rising to 2.9% annually in August.  The acceleration was caused by higher energy prices.  Core CPI, which excludes energy and food, held steady at 3.1% as forecasted.  The producer price index (PPI) fell to 2.6% significantly below the 3.3% estimated.  U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil prices rose 1.2% to $62.60 per barrel.  Gold has soared by over 10% over the last four weeks, closing at $3,651 an ounce.

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims for the week ended September 6th totaled 263,000 which has been the highest level since October 2021.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the U.S. payroll figures for the one-year period ending March 2025, downward showing that 911,000 fewer jobs were created than previously estimated.

The encouraging inflation data and softening labor market is increasing the likelihood of a 25-basis point rate reduction at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this week.  The bond market bounced around a bit with U.S. Treasury yields modestly increasing over most maturities.  The 10-year Treasury yield finished at 4.29% up slightly over last week’s 4.26%.

All eyes and ears will be on this Federal Reserve meeting when central bankers are expected to lower rates and share their latest thinking on the economy and monetary policy. Important housing data and retail sales will also be reported.

With persistent concerns over inflation and trade tariffs and relatively high market valuations, we recommend a cautionary view and encourage investors to stay within their long-term asset allocation targets.


“And all at once, summer collapsed into fall.” – Oscar Wilde