Weekly Commentary (11/18/25) – Markets Cautious as Shutdown Hangover Meets NVIDIA Watch

Last week, the DJIA added 0.41%, the S&P 500 gained 0.12%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.43%. International equities were firmer, with the MSCI EAFE up 1.66% and the MSCI Emerging Markets advancing 0.31%. Smaller companies representing the Russell 2000 fell 1.79%. The fixed-income benchmark Bloomberg Aggregate dropped 0.24%. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury closed at 4.14% (up 3 basis points). Gold rallied 2.21% to $4,087.00/oz, and oil rose 0.57% to $60.09 per barrel.

The longest U.S. federal government shutdown in history have left visible marks on the economy — both in lost output and in data gaps. The Congressional Budget Office estimates a permanent real-GDP shortfall of $7 billion-$14 billion and a drag of 1–2 percentage points on Q4 growth. At the same time, more than a month of suspended agency operations means several major economic releases are delayed, complicating the outlook for markets and policymakers.

The backdrop is anything but benign. Valuations are stretched and many stocks appear to be priced to perfection. The Federal Reserve is confronting a difficult position: inflation from tariffs is not yet evident in core data, yet the shutdown has injected fresh ambiguity into the timing of economic indicators and potential policy shifts. Looking ahead, this Wednesday will bring a highly anticipated earnings release from NVIDIA Corporation, which many investors view as a barometer for the broader tech/AI complex and overall sentiment in equities.  We continue to emphasize disciplined adherence to your investment policy and caution against complacency.

“Markets are like the tide — you can’t control the waves, but you can steer the boat.” - James Montier