Weekly Commentary (11/24/25) – Markets Down Across the World

Last week marked the first full week in the market since the government reopened, and investors were in no mood to bid stocks higher. 
           
For the week, the DJIA dropped 1.85% while the S&P 500 moved lower by 1.91%.  The tech-heavy Nasdaq sank 2.71%.  International markets were also lower. For the week, the MSCI EAFE Index (developed countries) finished down by 3.39% while emerging market equities (MSCI EM) gave back 3.71%.   Small company stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, tried to rally, but still closed the week down by 0.75%.  Fixed income, represented by the Bloomberg Aggregate, advanced 0.45% for the week as yields moved lower on a flight-to-safety trade and after dovish comments from NY Fed President Williams.  As a result, the 10 YR US Treasury closed at a yield of 4.06% (down ~8 bps from the previous week’s closing yield of ~4.14%).  Gold prices closed at $4,076.70/oz – down 0.27%.  Oil prices closed $58.06 per barrel, down 3.38% on the week.    

Last week saw the release of September payrolls as 119k were added, but unemployment rose 12bps to 4.4%, a four-year high.  Wages grew 0.2% m/m and 3.8% y/y.  The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 51.0, above the estimate of 50.3.  Consumers cited persistent high prices and weakening income as concerns.  Bellwether stock Nvidia reported 62% sales growth y/o/y, but investors decided to take profits after the stock had raced ahead by over 30% this year.  Lastly, Bitcoin continued its recent volatility and closed the week lower by over 10% to finish at $85,090.  

The week ahead will see the release on Wednesday of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.  Expectations are for headline and Core PCE to rise 2.5% y/y and 0.2% m/m. Tuesday will feature the release of October pending home sales (a key component of domestic growth with a modest increase of 0.5% to 1% expected) along with the 2nd read on 3rd quarter U.S. GDP (consensus is for ~4.0% growth in Q3).

Expect more volatility in this holiday-shortened trading week.  Despite strong corporate earnings and global GDP growth, investors are questioning whether or not an AI bubble is forming.  No doubt, many technology-related stock prices have moved markedly higher this year, but earnings and cash flows are at levels that do not indicate a bubble … perhaps a bit frothy, but profit taking after such a big run is to be expected.  We continue to recommend that clients stay close to their long-term target asset allocations.  

Markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and Friday will see an early close at 1pm.

We wish all our clients and friends a very Happy Thanksgiving!