Weekly Commentary (03/30/26) - Discipline Beats Prediction
Weekly Commentary (03/30/26) - Discipline Beats Prediction
What Just Happened
This past week gave markets and investors plenty to process.
Weekly Market Snapshot (Week Ending March 27, 2026)
S&P 500: -2.1%
Nasdaq: -3.2%
Dow Jones: -0.90%
MSCI EAFE (Developed Intl): 0.09%
MSCI Emerging Markets: -1.73%
Rates and commodities:
10-Year Treasury Yield: ~4.44%, up roughly 15 to 20 basis points
WTI Crude Oil: ~$95 to, up more than 5%
Gold: ~$4,500+, modestly higher on the week
The drivers were clear.
Rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East pushed oil higher. That fed into inflation concerns. Interest rates moved up as expectations around Fed policy shifted. Equities gave back some ground after a strong run. There is no shortage of headlines right now. And when uncertainty rises, something predictable happens. It becomes harder to think clearly.
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Two Stories Worth Remembering
My wife and I have been watching the series about John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette-Kennedy. It brought me back to the night of the crash. John was flying over the Atlantic at night. The horizon disappeared. Visibility dropped to almost nothing. In those conditions something dangerous happens. Your body lies to you. Pilots call it spatial disorientation. You feel level when you are not. You feel like you are climbing when you are descending. In those moments instinct is not your ally. It is your greatest risk. And instead of fully trusting the instruments, he relied at least, in part on what he felt. That is how control slips.
Now contrast that with Chesley Sullenberger on the day of the Miracle on the Hudson. Two minutes after takeoff both engines fail. Passengers. Crew. No runway. No time. What he did next is what matters. He did not try to be heroic.
He did not try to find the perfect answer. He reached for the QRH. The Quick Reference Handbook.
A checklist. A system. A set of decisions made in advance when thinking was clear, not compromised. He and his co-pilot worked the process step by step.
Calm. Methodical. Focused.
That discipline did not guarantee a perfect outcome. But it made the best possible outcome far more likely.
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What This Means
There was a line in something I read this week that stuck with me. We spend a lot of time trying to optimize outcomes. But the people who succeed over long periods of time focus on controlling the process. Not chasing recognition. Not reacting to every new piece of information. Not trying to win every moment. Just committing to the discipline. As Viktor Frankl wrote, success follows as a byproduct when we stop pursuing it directly. Investing works the same way. Because in markets like this your brain will try to take over. It will tell you to adjust. To react. To do something. But like a pilot in low visibility, those instincts are often wrong. That is why we build an Investment Policy Statement.
Your IPS (Investment Policy Statement) is your version of the QRH (Quick Reference Handbook).
It is not built for calm markets.
It is built for moments like this.
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What To Consider
We have just come through a meaningful bull run. And when markets rise over time portfolios naturally drift. Equity exposure creeps higher. Risk increases quietly. So the question right now is not what should we do next. It is are we still aligned with the plan we made when we were thinking clearly. For many investors the right action is simple.
Rebalance.
Bring allocations back to target.
Recommit to the discipline.
Not because we know what happens next.
But because we do not.
In the long run, discipline beats prediction. If you want to revisit your allocation or walk through your plan together we are here.
That is the work.
As we head into Easter and Passover, a time that for many is about renewal, reflection, and time with family, we hope you find a moment to step back and recharge.
We will continue doing the same on our end, staying disciplined and focused, so you do not have to carry that weight alone.
"Success will follow you precisely because you had forgotten to think about it."
- Viktor Frankl