Weekly Commentary (07/13/26) – Markets Face a Test from Earnings, Inflation, and Iran
Investors enter the heart of July with markets near record levels, earnings season beginning, inflation data due, and the U.S.-Iran conflict again pressuring confidence. That combination should make the next few weeks a meaningful test of both investor expectations and tolerance.
Last week’s market action remained mixed beneath the surface. Large U.S. stocks continued to show relative strength, especially growth-oriented shares, while small caps and international equities lagged. Bonds weakened as yields moved higher, and oil prices rose as renewed Middle East tensions pushed energy risk back into the foreground. Gold declined, suggesting that investors were not simply rushing toward defensive assets, but were instead weighing the competing risks of inflation, growth, and geopolitics.
The coming earnings season may be the most important near-term test for equities. Stock prices have already discounted a favorable profit outlook, particularly for large technology and AI-related companies. That does not mean earnings need to be spectacular, but it does mean companies may need to confirm that revenue growth, margins, and capital spending plans still justify elevated valuations. If earnings and guidance are solid, the market can continue to look through periodic volatility. If results disappoint, stretched expectations could leave markets vulnerable to a correction.
The other major test will come from inflation and the Federal Reserve. CPI and PPI are scheduled for release this week, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to testify before Congress for the first time as chairman. Investors will be listening closely on how he balances still-elevated inflation against signs of cooling in parts of the economy. Recent Fed communications have suggested a more data-dependent approach, and markets are still weighing whether the Fed will hold rates steady or hike once more if inflation proves stubborn.
Geopolitics remains the largest wildcard. The U.S.-Iran conflict has again raised concerns about oil supply, shipping routes, and confidence in diplomatic outcomes. Higher oil prices can quickly complicate the inflation outlook, especially when the Fed is already trying to determine whether price pressures are easing enough. If tensions stabilize, markets may refocus on earnings and economic data. If the conflict escalates, the risk of a sharper pullback would rise.
We continue to advise investors to be disciplined in adhering to their investment policy and patient when the markets’ winds are pushing against the planned course.
“Calm seas never made a good sailor.” – Franklin D. Roosevelt
Sources Market data: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Weekly Market Recap,
July 07, 2026. Index returns, yields, key rates, and commodity prices as cited in the Weekly Data Center. All equity returns represent total return for stated period. Oil and Gold: Wall Street Journal Markets Digest, July 07, 2026. Economic data: MarketWatch.com. Charts and portfolio data: YCharts.com.
NDS Wealth Advisors believes these sources are reliable but cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of third-party data and assumes no liability for errors or omissions.
Disclosures This material is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be relied upon as investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Any economic forecasts or market outlooks expressed herein are forward-looking statements, subject to change without notice, and may not materialize. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not reflect the deduction of fees, commissions, or expenses, which would reduce overall performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. This material does not consider the investment objectives, financial situation, or unique needs of any individual investor. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.